Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Predictability and foolishness

If you "pay" or "give incentives" for behavior, you can get people to respond. Cash for Clunkers is a great example of payment for behavior.

In a poor economic climate Americans should not be borrowing to purchase new cars. I would guess that in most cases that people driving a "junker" received $4,500 dollars off the purchase of a new car and are NOW MAKING PAYMENTS FOR YEARS! Yes they have a new car, but more debt is not a good solution either. Look at the following example...

If we traded our 1999 Suburban in for a GMC Acadia, given our 10,000 mile yearly driving it would take of 32 years to break even. Financially it makes more sense to drive the "junker" that I own vs. the new car that I have to make payments on!

We can predict or manipulate behavior with incentives. We can pour billions of tax dollars into programs that sell cars and help the finance industry with car loans, but American are now paying both the taxes and the car payments. Sometimes I wonder I about the foolishness of our leaders and decision makers!

I don't have trouble with incentives, but cash for clunkers benefits who????

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